CIVIL ENGINEERING 365 ALL ABOUT CIVIL ENGINEERING



AbstractInfrastructure condition assessments are used to model and forecast deterioration and identify maintenance, repair, and rehabilitation requirements and solutions. Therefore, accurate condition forecasts can support effective decision-making. An approach was developed to investigate and quantify the realized errors in forecasting the condition of homogeneous pavement sections using existing deterioration models. Historical airfield Pavement Condition Index (PCI) forecasts and the corresponding PCI values determined from subsequent distress observations at six US Air Force installations across the United States were used to develop and estimate a systematic forecast error model as a function of variables including condition at the time of the forecast, forecast horizon, design characteristics, climate, and location. In addition to interpreting the estimated model, possible reasons behind the presence of systematic forecast errors are discussed. Moreover, the model’s effectiveness in correcting for systematic forecast errors is evaluated. Results indicate that systematic forecast error corrections are meaningful in general, especially for cases with larger forecast errors.



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