Regional Multihazard Risk-Assessment Method for Overhead Transmission Line Structures Based on Failure Rate and a Bayesian Updating Scheme | Journal of Performance of Constructed Facilities | Vol 37, No 1

AbstractIn this study, a new method for multihazard risk assessment of an overhead transmission line grid located over a relatively large area is proposed. The main task of this method was to assess annual risk for overhead transmission lines using failure rates estimated from historical failure data and then modifying these estimated failure rates by reanalysis data and a Bayesian updating scheme. For this purpose, a comprehensive database of structural failures was collected for climatic, geologic, and man-made hazards to overhead transmission lines. Risk denotes the probability of exceeding the sum of direct losses due to repair costs of overhead transmission line components and indirect losses due to energy not supplied or unplanned power-off after outages. The performance of the proposed method was evaluated in a case study of a target area. The results showed that climatic hazards contributed the most to total losses in the study area. Furthermore, when using indirect losses to estimate the annual loss, the average annual loss may increase by up to about 45% relative to direct losses, depending on the type of hazard. This demonstrates the importance of investigating indirect losses from structural failures in the risk assessment of overhead transmission lines.



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