AbstractThe lower reaches of the Yellow River are characterized by a dense population, large resource consumption, fragile ecological environment, and unreasonable land use structure. Their economic development and urbanization are faster than those of cities in the upper and middle reaches of the Yellow River. Therefore, it is imperative to carry out systematic research on the development of new urbanization in this region, providing scientific reference to optimize the urban spatial layout and promoting sustainable urban development in this region, and to effectively promote the ecological protection and high-quality development of the lower Yellow River and even the whole Yellow River basin. Combining the evaluation index system, ArcGIS and panel data model were used to systematically analyze the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of new urbanization development in the lower reaches of the Yellow River region and its influencing factors from 2012 to 2019. The results show that new urbanization in the lower reaches of the Yellow River has been continuously improved, and the unbalanced development of new urbanization in 14 prefecture-level cities has exacerbated, with the coefficient of variation characterized by a “U-shaped” trend of first falling and then rising. The spatial difference is significant, and gradually exhibits a step-down spatial layout with Zhengzhou and Jinan as the growth poles, presenting a “dumbbell” distribution as a whole. The level of economic development, urban–rural income gap and infrastructure level act as positive roles in advancing the development of new urbanization in the region, while the urban–rural living gap has a negative inhibitory effect, among which the level of economic development exerts the most significant impact. Therefore, it is necessary to comprehensively improve the quality of urbanization development in the lower reaches of the Yellow River and to accelerate industrial transformation, upgrading and green development, and promoting regional integration and urban–rural integration.

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