Research on Urban Evolution in China from an Ecological Perspective: A Case of Beijing | Journal of Urban Planning and Development | Vol 149, No 1

AbstractThe development of cities as products of human society is in line with cyclical law. This study applies the system dynamics model to construct a city development model for Beijing, China’s capital city, and analyzes the simulation results from an ecological perspective. The results suggest that Beijing is still in the process of transitioning from fast development to maturity. This trend will continue until the mid-2030s, and this transition process will be composed of several periods. The motivation for development in each period is different. The industry will be the main driving force in the foreseeable future, and the lifespan of each period is approximately 10 years. Major events such as the Olympic Games are the key to evolution. Therefore, Beijing should exploit each event as booster for growth in the next period.Practical ApplicationsBeijing is the capital city of China. Based on our research, the city is in its maturity stage and facing metropolitan issues. In China, an urban plan text contains four parts: guiding ideology, development goal, key task, and implementation path. The findings of this research should make substantial contributions to the second and third parts. We have demonstrated that Beijing is transitioning from fast development to maturity in a cyclic curve. The key motivation for city evolution is industry. Big events such as the Olympic Games are key turning points, and these two findings steer goal-making in the planning process. Moreover, this study also highlighted the tendency of urban production, living, and environment in Beijing to contribute to key task selection.

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