AbstractLateral spreading of an interlayered deposit adjacent to a meandering stream channel in Wufeng, Taiwan, during the 1999 Chi-Chi Earthquake is evaluated using two-dimensional (2D) nonlinear dynamic analyses (NDAs) with geostatistical modeling of the subsurface to assess their ability to approximate the observed magnitude and spatial extent of ground deformations, as well as identify the key factors and mechanisms that most contributed to the overall system response. In-situ data from borings and cone penetration tests (CPTs) depict thinly stratified overbank deposits of low-plasticity silty sands, silts, and clays, interlayered with laterally discontinuous channel-deposited sands. The three-dimensional (3D) subsurface is simulated using transition probability-based indicator geostatistics, conditioned on available CPT data and geological inferences. The NDAs are performed using the PM4Sand and PM4Silt constitutive models, within the FLAC finite difference program. Sensitivity analyses are performed to understand the influence of uncertainties in the stratigraphy, channel conditions, soil properties, input ground motions, constitutive model calibration protocols, and numerical boundary conditions, as well as the performance of alternate channel transects. Most analysis cases generally matched the maximum displacements observed near the channel but overestimated the extent of displacements away from the channel. The most favorable results were largely influenced by nonstationary stratigraphic trends and cyclic softening of fine-grained soils, in addition to the liquefaction of coarse-grained soils. This case history demonstrates the capabilities and limitations of current subsurface and NDA modeling procedures for predicting ground deformation patterns.

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